Question

Will at least three lithium mines operate in the US before 2030?

19 comments19

Total Forecasters42

Community Prediction65% (60.3% - 67%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 65%

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Jan 15, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2029

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Geopolitics

Environment & Climate

Albemarle Corporation

Russia wants a lucrative share of the world's lithium market, but it's hitting roadblocks

Business Insider•Feb 17, 2025

Metals Crucial to Clean Energy Are Getting Caught Up in the US–China Trade War

Wired•Feb 16, 2025

What are Ukraine’s critical minerals – and why does Trump want them?

Guardian•Feb 17, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the famed South American lithium triangle (Bolivia, Chile, and Argentina) overtake Australia in lithium production before 2031?

52.7%

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

58.2

What will be the share of lithium consumption in 2030 in the United States met by lithium that was recycled or repurposed in the United States?

2.64

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