Question

Will less than 75% of European Union imports of rare earth magnets originate in China in 2030?

13 comments13

Total Forecasters18

Community Prediction30% (25% - 44%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 30%

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Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Environment & Climate

Samarium–cobalt magnet

Rare-earth magnet

China Is Halting Critical Mineral Exports to the US. An Idaho Mine Could Help—If It Ever Secures Federal Permits.

Washington Free Beacon•Dec 17, 2024

Green Deal Success Prompts European Union 2040 Climate Strategy

Forbes•Dec 19, 2024

New Class of Magnets Promises To Supercharge Tech Speeds by 1000X

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be China's share of rare earth production in 2030?

49.3

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

60.5

What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020?

37.1

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Environment & Climate

Samarium–cobalt magnet

Rare-earth magnet

China Is Halting Critical Mineral Exports to the US. An Idaho Mine Could Help—If It Ever Secures Federal Permits.

Washington Free Beacon•Dec 17, 2024

Green Deal Success Prompts European Union 2040 Climate Strategy

Forbes•Dec 19, 2024

New Class of Magnets Promises To Supercharge Tech Speeds by 1000X

Newsweek•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be China's share of rare earth production in 2030?

49.3

What will be the share of lithium processed in China in 2030?

60.5

What will be the percentage change in the energy transition metal index for the value in December of the listed year relative to the value in December 2020?

37.1