Question

Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?

Resolved :No8%

14 comments14

Total Forecasters50

Community Prediction8% (1% - 31%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 8%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

1.3

Community Peer Score

11.8

Authors:

dschwarz RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 10, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Feb 5, 2024

Health & Pandemics

2023 Leaderboard

Food and Drug Administration

Norovirus vaccine pill shows promise against 'winter vomiting' bug

New Scientist•Mar 6, 2025

Republicans attack technology Trump touted as signature achievement of his first term

AlterNet•Mar 10, 2025

Experts warn Americans ‘should bank on’ having more pandemics in the future

Independent•Mar 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be approved by the US?

2025-10-22

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

38%

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

80%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

dschwarz RyanBeck

Opened:

Jan 10, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Feb 5, 2024

Health & Pandemics

2023 Leaderboard

Food and Drug Administration

Norovirus vaccine pill shows promise against 'winter vomiting' bug

New Scientist•Mar 6, 2025

Republicans attack technology Trump touted as signature achievement of his first term

AlterNet•Mar 10, 2025

Experts warn Americans ‘should bank on’ having more pandemics in the future

Independent•Mar 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be approved by the US?

2025-10-22

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

38%

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

80%

MetaculusM

Will the US FDA authorize a new vaccine targeting COVID-19 in 2023?

Make a Prediction

When will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be approved by the US?

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

Comments

When will an intranasal SARS-CoV-2 vaccine be approved by the US?

Will the FDA approve a seasonal influenza vaccine for the 2025-2026 flu season before October 1, 2025?

Will a new tuberculosis vaccine be approved by the FDA, EMA, or PMDA before 2028?

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