🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

M

Question

When will US government 10-year bond yields next exceed 2-year bond yields?

Resolved :Aug 28, 20242024-11-15
5
10
Total Forecasters16
Community Prediction2024-11-15 (2024-09-03 - 2025-01-01)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

My Prediction
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
>2025-01-01
...
...
...
...
2024-09-03 12:41
2024-11-15 13:18
>2025-01-01 00:00
38.4%

What was the final result?Aug 28, 2024

Community Baseline Score
-18.7
Community Peer Score
52.5
Authors:
Cato
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Economy & Business
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Federal Reserve Economic Data
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
US Department of the Treasury
United States
Yield curve

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