Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Kevin McCarthy be Speaker of the House on January 1, 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%
4
20
Total Forecasters128
Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
-61.8
Community Peer Score
12.7
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
RyanBeck
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Politics
2023 Leaderboard
Speaker of the US House of Representatives
Kevin McCarthy (California politician)
John Boehner

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