Question
Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?
Total Forecasters32
Community Prediction28% (16.5% - 30%)
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Opened:Jan 25, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
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How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
1.49M
Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?
87.1%
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
3.5×10²⁵
Comments
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Authors:
Opened:Jan 25, 2023
Closes:Jan 1, 2026
Scheduled resolution:Jan 1, 2026
Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch
How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?
1.49M
Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?
87.1%
On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?
3.5×10²⁵