Question

Will a dense machine learning model with at least 100 trillion parameters be trained before 2026?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction28% (16.5% - 35%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 28%

Authors:

RyanBeck Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jan 25, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

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How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

1.49M

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

87.1%

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

2.6×10²⁵

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Jan 25, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2026

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2026

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Artificial Intelligence

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Ilya Sutskever Warns A.I. Is Running Out of Data—Here’s What Will Happen Next

Observer (NY)•Feb 3, 2025

Elon Predicts One Million Humans Will Be Augmented By Neuralink By 2030

Forbes•Feb 3, 2025

We’ll Need To Anticipate AI Using A Lot Of Resources In Tomorrow’s World

Forbes•Feb 4, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many billions of parameters will the largest machine learning model trained before 2030 have?

1.49M

Will the US government deem that an AI model has been trained with at least 1e26 FLOP before 2026?

87.1%

On January 1, 2030, what will be the difference (in FLOP) between the largest AI models from non-authoritarian and authoritarian countries?

2.6×10²⁵