Question

Will anyone other than the Democratic or Republican nominee win a state in the 2028 US presidential election?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters7

Community Prediction2% (1.4% - 2%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Feb 8, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2029

Politics

Californians Turn on Democratic Party

Newsweek•Feb 14, 2025

Tulsi Gabbard soars in popularity in betting markets as forecasts show she could clear the field

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

If Donald Trump doesn’t see JD Vance as his 2028 successor, who could that be?

Independent•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

2084-03-14

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Feb 8, 2025

Closes:

Dec 31, 2028

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2029

Politics

Californians Turn on Democratic Party

Newsweek•Feb 14, 2025

Tulsi Gabbard soars in popularity in betting markets as forecasts show she could clear the field

Daily Mail•Feb 16, 2025

If Donald Trump doesn’t see JD Vance as his 2028 successor, who could that be?

Independent•Feb 16, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Democratic or Republican party nominee for US president receive fewer votes than a candidate not representing one of those parties?

2069-09-07

When will the US elect a President who is not a Democrat or a Republican?

2084-03-14

Will a Democrat win the 2028 US presidential election?

55%