Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?

Resolved :Yes90%
8
2
Total Forecasters52
Community Prediction90% (84% - 97%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score
11.8
Community Peer Score
1.6
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
peter_m
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Business of AI
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
2023 Leaderboard
GPT
OpenAI
GPT2
Chatbot

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