Question

Will ChatGPT have multiple tiers of capability before 2024?

Resolved :Yes90%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters52

Community Prediction90% (84% - 97%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 90%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

11.8

Community Peer Score

1.6

Authors:

peter_m

Opened:

Jan 19, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

peter_m

Opened:

Jan 19, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Business of AI

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

ChatGPT isn't slowing down Google just yet, and these numbers prove it

Business Insider•Mar 5, 2025

OpenAI’s GPT-4.5 AI model comes to more ChatGPT users

TechCrunch•Mar 6, 2025

Chatbots Are Cheating on Their Benchmark Tests

Atlantic•Mar 6, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will GPT-5 be available to the general public?

2025-07-16