Question

Will the Doomsday Clock move closer to midnight?

Resolved :Yes

18 comments18

Total Forecasters48

Community Prediction61%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 61%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

28.9

Community Peer Score

-3.0

median 61.0%mean 63.2%

Authors:

Anastasia

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰

Doomsday Clock

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Nuclear warfare

Scientific consensus on climate change

Innovation

When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?

2093-06-22

Doomsday Clock and ICAN Forecasting

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Anastasia

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

🔰Q1 2023 Beginner Tournament 🔰

Doomsday Clock

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists

Nuclear warfare

Scientific consensus on climate change

Innovation

A new nuclear arms race is beginning. It will be far more dangerous than the last one

Guardian•Nov 14, 2024

As planet heads toward 2.7°C rise, tracker warns global climate action has 'flatlined'

Raw Story•Nov 15, 2024

Countries agreed to try to hold global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Is that still possible?

NPR Online News•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will the Doomsday Clock reach midnight?

2093-06-22

Doomsday Clock and ICAN Forecasting

If there is at least 1 offensive nuclear detonation by 2100, when will the first detonation occur?

2037-05-28