Group

How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years?

15 forecasters

Make a Prediction

Year	resolution
2024	8
Year	25th	median	75th
2025	7.75 ...	11.4 ...	15.6 ...
2030	9.47 ...	16.6 ...	24.2 ...
2035	16.4 ...	24.6 ...	31.4 ...

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>49

17.76

19.58

21.51

0.1%

What was the final result?8

Community Baseline Score

-136.9

Community Peer Score

25.7

Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 7

2035

2024

2030

2025

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 1

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

2021-2025 Leaderboard

2023 Leaderboard

US Environmental Protection Agency

Transport

Engineering

Energy

Zero-emissions vehicle

Environmental science

Clean Air Act

California

US EPA approves California plan to ban gas-only cars starting in 2035

One America•Dec 18, 2024

EPA Approves California Plan to Ban Sales of Gas Cars by 2035

Newsweek•Dec 18, 2024

Why Trump's looming battle with California over EVs will affect the entire auto industry

Business Insider•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

28.8

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

7.84

Will a law that allows states other than California to set their own stringent vehicle emissions standards be enacted in the United States before January 1, 2027?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Climate Tipping Points

Climate Tipping Points Round 1

Environment & Climate

Economy & Business

2021-2025 Leaderboard

2023 Leaderboard

US Environmental Protection Agency

Transport

Engineering

Energy

Zero-emissions vehicle

Environmental science

Clean Air Act

California

US EPA approves California plan to ban gas-only cars starting in 2035

One America•Dec 18, 2024

EPA Approves California Plan to Ban Sales of Gas Cars by 2035

Newsweek•Dec 18, 2024

Why Trump's looming battle with California over EVs will affect the entire auto industry

Business Insider•Dec 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

28.8

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

7.84

Will a law that allows states other than California to set their own stringent vehicle emissions standards be enacted in the United States before January 1, 2027?

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

How many states will have legally enforceable rules that are at least as stringent as Advanced Clean Cars II on January 1 of the following years?

Make a Prediction

Forecast Timeline

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

Will a law that allows states other than California to set their own stringent vehicle emissions standards be enacted in the United States before January 1, 2027?

Comments

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

Will a law that allows states other than California to set their own stringent vehicle emissions standards be enacted in the United States before January 1, 2027?

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

Will a law that allows states other than California to set their own stringent vehicle emissions standards be enacted in the United States before January 1, 2027?

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in California in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

What will be the percent of light vehicles sold in the United States in the following years which are zero-emission vehicles?

Will a law that allows states other than California to set their own stringent vehicle emissions standards be enacted in the United States before January 1, 2027?