Question

Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

4 comments4

Total Forecasters7

Community Prediction1.5e29

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My Prediction

community

<1e25

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>1e50

...

3.0%

6.9e27

1.5e29

1.6e31

0.2%

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

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AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

Information technology

Data analysis

When will we have transformative AI?

2042-07

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.43

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

AI Training and Compute

AI Technical Benchmarks

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Machine learning

Artificial intelligence

Information technology

Data analysis

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When will we have transformative AI?

2042-07

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

3.43

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Before the first year in which GWP growth exceeds 30%, how many FLOP will be used in the largest ML training run?

Make a Prediction

When will we have transformative AI?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

Comments

When will we have transformative AI?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

When will we have transformative AI?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?

When will we have transformative AI?

What will be the highest estimated computation (in FLOP) used in large AI training runs by the following years?

How many years before (or after) AGI is developed, will the world real GDP be 25% higher than every previous year for the first time?