Question

What percentage of Americans will be obese or overweight in 2030?

102 comments102

Total Forecasters271

Community Prediction68.5 (58 - 76.4)

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CDF

weight:

My Prediction

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

58.04

68.48

76.42

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Oct 6, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

BMI is wrong way to measure obesity, researchers say — here’s what they recommend instead

FOX News•Jan 20, 2025

UK obesity rates ‘may start dropping significantly’ this year because of weight loss jabs

Independent•Jan 21, 2025

BMI is wrong way to measure obesity, researchers say — here’s what they recommend instead

New York Post•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?

What percentage of US adults will have Diabetes (type 1 and 2) in 2032?

13.7

Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?

31.1%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

AdamK

Opened:

Oct 6, 2018

Closes:

Dec 31, 2030

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2031

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

BMI is wrong way to measure obesity, researchers say — here’s what they recommend instead

FOX News•Jan 20, 2025

UK obesity rates ‘may start dropping significantly’ this year because of weight loss jabs

Independent•Jan 21, 2025

BMI is wrong way to measure obesity, researchers say — here’s what they recommend instead

New York Post•Jan 22, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What percentage of Americans will be obese in 2032?

What percentage of US adults will have Diabetes (type 1 and 2) in 2032?

13.7

Will any OECD country achieve a 10% or greater reduction in the national rate of obesity for 3 consecutive years before 2030?

31.1%