Question

Will NATO Article 5 action be taken before January 1, 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%

8 comments8

Total Forecasters90

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

96.4

Community Peer Score

5.0

Authors:

rob.louis

Opened:

Feb 4, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Geopolitics

2023 Leaderboard

Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council

Charter of the United Nations

September 11 attacks

George Robertson, Baron Robertson of Port Ellen

Afghanistan

North Atlantic Treaty

‘No more excuses’: Europe under pressure on defence spending three years after Russian invasion

Guardian•Feb 24, 2025

Russian Military Expert Warns Moscow 'Must be Prepared' for War With NATO

Newsweek•Feb 24, 2025

Could Nato soon be over – and what might replace it?

Independent•Feb 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

92%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

rob.louis

Opened:

Feb 4, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

Geopolitics

2023 Leaderboard

Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council

Charter of the United Nations

September 11 attacks

George Robertson, Baron Robertson of Port Ellen

Afghanistan

North Atlantic Treaty

‘No more excuses’: Europe under pressure on defence spending three years after Russian invasion

Guardian•Feb 24, 2025

Russian Military Expert Warns Moscow 'Must be Prepared' for War With NATO

Newsweek•Feb 24, 2025

Could Nato soon be over – and what might replace it?

Independent•Feb 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Which countries will be the subject of NATO action under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, if NATO takes Article 5 action before 2040?

Will the United States remain a NATO member continuously until January 1, 2029?

92%

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

63%