Question

How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?

Resolved :37.5k146k

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction146k (75.7k - 296k)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>15M
community	75.74k	146k	296.5k	0.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	75.74k	—
median	146k	—
upper 75%	296.5k	—
Upper bound
>15M	0.4%	—

What was the final result?37.5k

Community Baseline Score

174.6

Community Peer Score

79.1

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Jan 30, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 2, 2024

Keep Virginia Safe II

Keep Virginia Safe II: Keep Virginia Safe Series

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

US Department of Agriculture

Hundreds of birds in NYC infected by bird flu after poultry markets allowed to reopen

New York Post•Mar 6, 2025

Elon Musk Says Biden Ordered ‘Insane Slaughter Of 150 Million’ Chickens—But Culls Are USDA Policy To Stop Bird Flu Spread

Forbes•Mar 7, 2025

RFK Jr. warns vaccinating poultry for bird flu could backfire

CBS•Mar 7, 2025

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