Question

How many birds will be affected by avian influenza in Virginia in 2023?

Resolved :37.5k146k

Total Forecasters43

Community Prediction146k (75.7k - 296k)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>15M
community	75.74k	146k	296.5k	0.4%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	75.74k	—
median	146k	—
upper 75%	296.5k	—
Upper bound
>15M	0.4%	—

What was the final result?37.5k

Community Baseline Score

174.6

Community Peer Score

79.1

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Jan 30, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 2, 2024

Keep Virginia Safe II

Keep Virginia Safe II: Keep Virginia Safe Series

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

US Department of Agriculture

Hundreds of birds in NYC infected by bird flu after poultry markets allowed to reopen

New York Post•Mar 6, 2025

Your questions about bird flu, answered

NBC•Mar 9, 2025

Trump's Plan To Combat Bird Flu Will Ensure More Bird Flu | Opinion

Newsweek•Mar 11, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

How many farmed birds will be killed in the United States due to bird flu in 2025?

58.8M

How many total human cases of H5 bird flu will CDC report in the United States for 2024 and 2025?

167

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Comments

? comments