Question

What will be Top500's #1 performing supercomputer as a multiple of the #500 performer in 2030?

Total Forecasters33

Community Prediction254 (159 - 376)

Make a Prediction

PDF

CDF

This question is closed for predictions, and is waiting to be resolved

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>500
community	158.6	253.7	376.4	7.1%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	158.6	—
median	253.7	—
upper 75%	376.4	—
Upper bound
>500	7.1%	—

Authors:

Jotto

Opened:

Oct 18, 2018

Closed:

Dec 31, 2024

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2030

Computing and Math

2016-2025 Leaderboard

Information technology

TOP500

FLOPS

Measurement

How IBM CEO Arvind Krishna Is Thinking About AI and Quantum Computing

Time•Mar 2, 2025

Groundbreaking quantum computer found to be quadrillion times faster than fastest supercomputer

Independent•Mar 4, 2025

GeForce RTX 50 series

•Mar 5, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will the the performance be of the top-performing supercomputer (in exaFLOPS) in the TOP500 be according to their June 2030 list?

51.5

What will be the sum of the performance (in exaFLOPS) of the top 500 supercomputers in the following dates?

20.6

What will be the speed (in FLOPS) of the fastest supercomputer on record in the following years?

2.9×10¹⁸

Comments

? comments