Metaculus
M
Questions
Tournaments
Leaderboards
News
More
create
Log in
a
/
文
Group
What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below?
7
35 comments
35
35 forecasters
Make a Prediction
2-Week Period Ending
resolution
Feb 11
83.9
Feb 25
88.9
March 11
91.6
March 25
86.4
April 8
78.8
April 22
Ambiguous
May 6
Ambiguous
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
Probability Density
Cumulative Probability
community
lower 25%
median
upper 75%
67.84
75.71
82.56
What was the final result?
83.9
Community Baseline Score
40.0
Community Peer Score
71.7
Additional Scores
Learn more about scores
here
.
Forecast Timeline
1d
1w
2m
all
March 25
March 11
April 8
Feb 25
April 22
Feb 11
1 others
Background Info
Authors:
juancambeiro
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Keep Virginia Safe II: Variant Characteristics Series
Health & Pandemics
2023 Leaderboard
Infectious disease
Omicron
United States
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Epidemiology
Submit Tags Feedback
News Match
COVID: Updated CDC Map Reveals Infection Rates Across US
Newsweek
•
Dec 17, 2024
COVID Update: Map Reveals States at Greatest Risk As Christmas Nears
Newsweek
•
Dec 19, 2024
How Many Lives Were Lost to COVID-19? A Look Back Nearly 5 Years Later
Newsweek
•
Dec 19, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Comments
Log in
? comments
recent
Load more comments
Follow
embed
Authors:
juancambeiro
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Keep Virginia Safe II: Variant Characteristics Series
Health & Pandemics
2023 Leaderboard
Infectious disease
Omicron
United States
Medicine
COVID-19
Virology
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
Epidemiology
Submit Tags Feedback
News Match
COVID: Updated CDC Map Reveals Infection Rates Across US
Newsweek
•
Dec 17, 2024
COVID Update: Map Reveals States at Greatest Risk As Christmas Nears
Newsweek
•
Dec 19, 2024
How Many Lives Were Lost to COVID-19? A Look Back Nearly 5 Years Later
Newsweek
•
Dec 19, 2024
Show More News
Learn more
about Metaculus NewsMatch
Similar Questions
Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?
90%
When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?
2024-11-25
What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?
1.57
Show More Questions
Similar Questions
Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?
90%
When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?
2024-11-25
What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?
1.57
Show More Questions