Group

What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below?

35 comments35

35 forecasters

Make a Prediction

2-Week Period Ending	resolution
Feb 11	83.9
Feb 25	88.9
March 11	91.6
March 25	86.4
April 8	78.8
April 22	Ambiguous
May 6	Ambiguous

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

67.84

75.71

82.56

What was the final result?83.9

Community Baseline Score

40.0

Community Peer Score

71.7

Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 17

March 25

March 11

April 8

Feb 25

April 22

Feb 11

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Keep Virginia Safe II: Variant Characteristics Series

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

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Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

90%

When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?

2024-11-25

What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?

1.57

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Keep Virginia Safe II: Variant Characteristics Series

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

COVID: Updated CDC Map Reveals Infection Rates Across US

Newsweek•Dec 17, 2024

COVID Update: Map Reveals States at Greatest Risk As Christmas Nears

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

How Many Lives Were Lost to COVID-19? A Look Back Nearly 5 Years Later

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

90%

When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?

2024-11-25

What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?

1.57

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below?

Make a Prediction

Forecast Timeline

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?

What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?

Comments

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?

What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?

What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?

What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?