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What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below?

35 comments35

35 forecasters

Make a Prediction

2-Week Period Ending	resolution
Feb 11	83.9
Feb 25	88.9
March 11	91.6
March 25	86.4
April 8	78.8
April 22	Ambiguous
May 6	Ambiguous

community

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

93.2

96.21

97.86

What was the final result?86.4

Community Baseline Score

-8.9

Community Peer Score

66.8

Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Total Forecasters 16

March 25

March 11

April 8

Feb 25

April 22

Feb 11

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

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Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

90%

When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?

2024-11-25

What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?

1.57

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Keep Virginia Safe II: Variant Characteristics Series

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

Epidemiology

COVID Update: Map Reveals States at Greatest Risk As Christmas Nears

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

How Many Lives Were Lost to COVID-19? A Look Back Nearly 5 Years Later

Newsweek•Dec 19, 2024

America's bird flu hotspots revealed as patient fights for their life in hospital... is killer virus in YOUR state?

Daily Mail•Dec 21, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

90%

When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?

2024-11-25

What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?

1.57

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

MetaculusM

What will the median % prevalence of XBB1.5 in U.S. HHS Region 3 for the biweekly periods shown below?

Make a Prediction

Forecast Timeline

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?

What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?

Comments

Will the XEC COVID-19 variant account for at least 50% of the variants monitored in the US before January 5, 2025?

When, before April 27, 2025, will the KP lineage constitute less than 50% of the COVID-19 variants monitored in the US?

What will be the lowest COVID-19 hospitalization rate from October 5, 2024 to January 4, 2025?