Question

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nuclear war?

15 comments15

Total Forecasters247

Community Prediction27%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 27%

median 27.0%mean 30.9%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Ragnarök Series

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Soviet Union

China

United Kingdom

Environmental science

A new nuclear arms race is beginning. It will be far more dangerous than the last one

Guardian•Nov 14, 2024

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

How Kim Jong-un's Fears Shape North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Agenda

•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Short- and long-term effects of nuclear war

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Ragnarök Series

Nuclear Technology & Risks

Soviet Union

China

United Kingdom

Environmental science

A new nuclear arms race is beginning. It will be far more dangerous than the last one

Guardian•Nov 14, 2024

Could Zelensky really go nuclear and build a ‘dirty bomb’ if Trump ends US support of Ukraine?

Independent•Nov 15, 2024

How Kim Jong-un's Fears Shape North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Agenda

•Nov 18, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nuclear catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Short- and long-term effects of nuclear war

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as an act of war by 2050?

20%