Question

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters31

Community Prediction40% (32% - 51%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

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Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nile

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Egypt

Ethiopia

Uppsala Conflict Data Program

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Newsweek•Dec 11, 2024

‘The water war’: how drought threatens survival of Sicily’s towns

Guardian•Dec 13, 2024

Crucial dam at risk as Kurds and Turkish-backed groups battle in northern Syria

CNN•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

1.2%

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

33%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Geopolitics

Nile

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Egypt

Ethiopia

Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Stability in the Horn of Africa Is Vital to Global Trade and Security

Newsweek•Dec 11, 2024

‘The water war’: how drought threatens survival of Sicily’s towns

Guardian•Dec 13, 2024

Crucial dam at risk as Kurds and Turkish-backed groups battle in northern Syria

CNN•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

1.2%

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

33%

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Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Make a Prediction

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Comments

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

Will there be 100 or more military conflict deaths between Ethiopia and Eritrea in 2024?

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?