Question

Will state-based conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

14 comments14

Total Forecasters32

Community Prediction35.1% (16% - 51%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 35.1%

Authors:

Joker

Opened:

Feb 12, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2069

Scheduled resolution:

Jan 1, 2071

Geopolitics

Nile

Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam

Egypt

Ethiopia

Uppsala Conflict Data Program

Chilling map reveals where 75% of US population could perish in event of a nuclear attack

Daily Mail•Feb 17, 2025

To avoid another conflict in the Horn of Africa, now is the time to act

Al Jazeera•Feb 18, 2025

Sudan bombardments: At least 127, mostly civilians, killed in two days

CNN•Feb 19, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will a military conflict between Egypt and Israel cause 1,000 or more deaths before 2030?

Will state-based conflict between Morocco and Algeria cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

30%

Will state-based conflict between Afghanistan and Pakistan cause at least 1,000 deaths in a single year before 2070?

25%

Comments

? comments