Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Does Stephen Hawking's September paper contain the essence of a solution to the black hole information paradox?

Resolved :No19%
Total Forecasters38
Community Prediction19% (10% - 21%)

Make a Prediction

50%
community: 19%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
87.2
Community Peer Score
1.2
Learn more about scores here.
Authors:
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:

Comments

? comments