Question

Will a NATO country commit to sending at least one F-16 fighter jet to Ukraine before 2024?

Resolved :Yes99%

35 comments35

Total Forecasters190

Community Prediction99% (98% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

38.8

Community Peer Score

13.7

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Feb 5, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon

M142 HIMARS

Ukraine Says It Foiled Russian Missile Strike Plot Targeting F-16s

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Western officials warn Ukraine over weapons procurement dispute

Associated Press•Jan 29, 2025

NATO Nation Scrambles F-16 Fighter Jets After Russian Attack on Ukraine

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

25%

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Will there be a direct conflict between Russia and any NATO member state before 2027?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Feb 5, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Dec 31, 2023

General Dynamics F-16 Fighting Falcon

M142 HIMARS

Ukraine Says It Foiled Russian Missile Strike Plot Targeting F-16s

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Western officials warn Ukraine over weapons procurement dispute

Associated Press•Jan 29, 2025

NATO Nation Scrambles F-16 Fighter Jets After Russian Attack on Ukraine

Newsweek•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will combat troops from any NATO country be openly present in Ukraine before 2027 in significant numbers?

25%