Question

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to nanotechnology failure-mode?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters175

Community Prediction3% (1% - 5%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 3%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Oct 13, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 1, 2101

Fail-safes in nanotechnology

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Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

46%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

Ragnarök Question Series: if a global biological catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Oct 13, 2018

Closes:

Jan 1, 2100

Scheduled resolution:

Jun 1, 2101

Fail-safes in nanotechnology

So About That Asteroid That Could Hit Earth ...

Atlantic•Feb 12, 2025

An asteroid could hit Earth in 7 years. Here's how astronomers are tracking it

NPR Online News•Feb 13, 2025

DeepSeek: The Starter Gun For Physical AI Just Got Fired

Forbes•Feb 13, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Ragnarök Question Series: if a nanotechnology catastrophe occurs, will it reduce the human population by 95% or more?

46%

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%