Question

Will Kevin McCarthy visit Taiwan in 2023?

Resolved :No

7 comments7

Total Forecasters70

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

48.7

Community Peer Score

19.2

median 0.1%mean 1.2%

Authors:

Cato

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Politics

The Pentagon

Speaker of the US House of Representatives

China

Kevin McCarthy (California politician)

Nancy Pelosi

Taiwan

United States

Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China

Yu Shyi-kun

Legislative Yuan

Will there be 10 or more armed forces conflict deaths between China and Taiwan in 2024?

Will the People's Republic of China control at least half of Taiwan before 2030?

10%

If Taiwan declares independence by 2035, will the United States appoint an ambassador within a year?

43.7%

Comments

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