Question

Will the suspected Chinese surveillance balloon be on the ground before February 11th, 2023?

Resolved :Yes99%

22 comments22

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction99% (93% - 99%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 99%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-2.7

Community Peer Score

0.7

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Feb 4, 2023

Closes:

Feb 10, 2023

Resolves:

Feb 10, 2023

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

NMorrison

Opened:

Feb 4, 2023

Closes:

Feb 10, 2023

Resolves:

Feb 10, 2023

Border control blimp carried more than 600 miles by winds before crashing in Dallas suburb

Independent•Mar 6, 2025

US surveillance balloon breaks free near Texas border and travels to Dallas area before crashing

New York Post•Mar 7, 2025

US Space Force Leader Warns About China's Expanding Military Drills

Newsweek•Mar 7, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If the U.S. detonates a nuclear weapon offensively as a first use before 2035, will China have first officially renounced their “no first use” policy?

50%