Question

Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?

Resolved:No

10 comments10

Total Forecasters100

Community Prediction

0.1%

(0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

92.0

Community Peer Score

6.1

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Feb 4, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 4, 2023

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

2023 Leaderboard

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Public Health Emergency of International Concern

Human mortality from H5N1

Bird flu has wiped out more than 30 million chickens so far this year

Independent•Apr 21, 2025

As bird flu hits cattle herds in U.S., scientists say these H5N1 factors worry them most

CBS•Apr 21, 2025

Airborne Transmission Of Highly Pathogenic Bird Flu

Forbes•Apr 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

10%

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Feb 4, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Spot Scoring Time:

Feb 4, 2023

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

2023 Leaderboard

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Public Health Emergency of International Concern

Human mortality from H5N1

Bird flu has wiped out more than 30 million chickens so far this year

Independent•Apr 21, 2025

As bird flu hits cattle herds in U.S., scientists say these H5N1 factors worry them most

CBS•Apr 21, 2025

Airborne Transmission Of Highly Pathogenic Bird Flu

Forbes•Apr 21, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

66%

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

10%

Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?

Make a Prediction

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

Comments

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

Will the US Department of Health and Human Services declare a public health emergency for H5 avian influenza before January 1, 2026?

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