Question

Will WHO declare H5N1 a Public Health Emergency of International Concern before 2024?

Resolved :No

10 comments10

Total Forecasters100

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

92.0

Community Peer Score

6.1

median 0.1%mean 1.8%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Public Health Emergency of International Concern

Human mortality from H5N1

WHO says mpox remains public health emergency of international concern

Al Jazeera•Nov 23, 2024

Urgent 'do not drink' warning issued for trendy milk after alarming bird flu discovery

Daily Mail•Nov 26, 2024

Opinion | I Ran Operation Warp Speed. I’m Concerned About Bird Flu.

New York Times•Nov 26, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

40%

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

4.2%

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

20%

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