Question

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?

Resolved :No

18 comments18

Total Forecasters113

Community Prediction1%

Make a Prediction

community: 0.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

74.9

Community Peer Score

20.2

median 0.5%mean 3.3%

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Electronics

Human mortality from H5N1

Human Friendly Transmission

Medicine

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

14%

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

33%

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