Question

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?

Resolved :No0.5%

18 comments18

Total Forecasters113

Community Prediction0.5% (0.1% - 1%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.5%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

74.9

Community Peer Score

20.2

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Feb 4, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

2023 Leaderboard

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Electronics

United Kingdom

Human mortality from H5N1

Human Friendly Transmission

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Guardian•Feb 25, 2025

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Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

20%

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

65%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Feb 4, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

2023 Leaderboard

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Electronics

United Kingdom

Human mortality from H5N1

Human Friendly Transmission

Some of NYC’s 500K stray cats could be infected with bird flu — possibly threatening humans: activists

New York Post•Feb 22, 2025

Vanderbilt professor: Why I'm terrified about new coronavirus strain found in China

Daily Mail•Feb 25, 2025

Two people in US hospitalized with bird flu, CDC reports

Guardian•Feb 25, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

20%

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026? → Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

65%