Question

Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?

Resolved :Yes40%

8 comments8

Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction40% (31% - 44%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?Yes

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Authors:

bskubi

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Natural Sciences

2023 Leaderboard

Veterinary medicine

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Avian influenza

Fur farming

Human mortality from H5N1

CDC Confirms First ‘Severe’ Human Bird Flu Case In US—Here’s What To Know

Forbes•Dec 19, 2024

The bird flu outbreak keeps getting more worrying

Business Insider•Dec 19, 2024

What We Know About America’s First ‘Severe’ Bird-Flu Case

•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

2040-01-01

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

58%

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

19%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

bskubi

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Natural Sciences

2023 Leaderboard

Veterinary medicine

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Avian influenza

Fur farming

Human mortality from H5N1

CDC Confirms First ‘Severe’ Human Bird Flu Case In US—Here’s What To Know

Forbes•Dec 19, 2024

The bird flu outbreak keeps getting more worrying

Business Insider•Dec 19, 2024

What We Know About America’s First ‘Severe’ Bird-Flu Case

•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

2040-01-01

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

58%

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

19%

Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

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Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?

Make a Prediction

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

Comments

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

Will the WHO declare H5 avian influenza to be a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) before 2026?