Question

Will a bird flu outbreak among minks on an additional mink farm result in the minks being culled before 2024?

Resolved :Yes

8 comments8

Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction40%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 40%

Did this actually happen?Yes

Community Baseline Score

-14.6

Community Peer Score

4.5

median 40.0%mean 44.9%

Authors:

bskubi

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Natural Sciences

Veterinary medicine

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Avian influenza

Fur farming

Human mortality from H5N1

When will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000?

2040-01-01

Will an avian influenza virus in humans be declared a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” by the World Health Organization before 2030?

33.3%

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

0.1%

Comments

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