Question

Will there be at least 10,000 confirmed deaths due to H5N1 before 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%

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Total Forecasters76

Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

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community: 0.1%

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Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

2023 Leaderboard

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Human mortality from H5N1

Public health

Medicine

Virology

World Health Organization

Microbiology

Epidemiology

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•Dec 19, 2024

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If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.25

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

0.1%

Comments

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Authors:

juancambeiro

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Health & Pandemics

Natural Sciences

2023 Leaderboard

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Human mortality from H5N1

Public health

Medicine

Virology

World Health Organization

Microbiology

Epidemiology

CDC Confirms First ‘Severe’ Human Bird Flu Case In US—Here’s What To Know

Forbes•Dec 19, 2024

What We Know About America’s First ‘Severe’ Bird-Flu Case

•Dec 19, 2024

CDC Confirms First Severe Case of H5N1 Bird Flu in the United States

•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

If at least 100 human cases of H5N1 are confirmed in the United States in 2024, what will the estimated case fatality rate (in percent) be in the US?

1.25

Will CDC report 10,000 or more H5 avian influenza cases in the United States before January 1, 2026?

Will human cases of HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b avian influenza exceed 500,000 before 2025?

0.1%