Question

Will a post-Putin Russia substantially democratise within 5 years?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters126

Community Prediction14% (5% - 30%)

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50%

community: 14%

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Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Russia under Vladimir Putin

A string of assassinations, a faltering economy, a shortage of workers: the pressure on Putin is ratcheting up | Olga Chyzh

Guardian•Dec 19, 2024

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What will be the Democracy Index of Russia in the 2030 report by the Economist Intelligence Unit?

2.29

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2029-05-01

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

30%

Comments

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Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Russia under Vladimir Putin

A string of assassinations, a faltering economy, a shortage of workers: the pressure on Putin is ratcheting up | Olga Chyzh

Guardian•Dec 19, 2024

Could detente with our adversaries happen under a new Trump administration?

OpEdNews•Dec 21, 2024

Putin has been conspicuously silent about Syria since the collapse of Assad's rule

Business Insider•Dec 17, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the Democracy Index of Russia in the 2030 report by the Economist Intelligence Unit?

2.29

When will Vladimir Putin cease to hold the office of President of Russia?

2029-05-01

Will the next Russian leader disapprove of the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

30%