Question

Will at least one mink farm worker die from any strain of bird flu in 2023?

Resolved :No1%

8 comments8

Total Forecasters30

Community Prediction1% (0.5% - 7%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

79.0

Community Peer Score

12.6

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Authors:

bskubi

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Human mortality from H5N1

Bird flu

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Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

30%

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2025?

How many additional highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 infections will be reported in humans in the United States in 2024?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

bskubi

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Influenza A virus subtype H5N1

Human mortality from H5N1

Bird flu

Medicine

What We Know About America’s First ‘Severe’ Bird-Flu Case

•Dec 19, 2024

CDC Confirms First Severe Human Case of Bird Flu in the US. Here's What You Should Know

•Dec 19, 2024

How do people catch bird flu?

CNN•Dec 19, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 globally before 2026?

30%