Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

Question

Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?

Resolved :No0.1%
5
4
Total Forecasters72
Community Prediction0.1% (0.1% - 1%)

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community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score
97.9
Community Peer Score
9.8
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Authors:
AlexLPhilippSchoenegger
Opened:
Closes:
Resolves:
Geopolitics
2023 Leaderboard
Simferopol
Russo-Ukrainian War
Autonomous Republic of Crimea
Building of the Supreme Council of Crimea
Institute for the Study of War
Ukraine
Crimea
Russia

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