Question

Will Ukraine have de facto control of Simferopol on January 1, 2024?

Resolved :No

4 comments4

Total Forecasters72

Community Prediction0.1%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 0.1%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

97.9

Community Peer Score

9.8

median 0.1%mean 1.1%

Authors:

AlexL PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Geopolitics

Simferopol

Russo-Ukrainian War

Autonomous Republic of Crimea

Building of the Supreme Council of Crimea

Institute for the Study of War

Ukraine

Crimea

Russia

Will Ukraine have de-facto control over the Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts before January 1st, 2030?

Will Ukraine be in control of these cities on January 1st, 2027?

Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?

25%

Comments

? comments