Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

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conditional
condition

Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024?

Resolved :No
25 forecasters
if yes
if no

Ukrainian 2025 Exports above 2021?

13%
13%
Resolved :Annulled13%

Ukrainian 2025 Exports above 2021?

2%
2%
6
0

Make a Prediction

Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024?

Ukrainian 2025 Exports above 2021?

50%
community: 13%
The question "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "Will Ukraine's exports in 2025 exceed those in 2021?" resolves.
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:
Closed:
Scheduled resolution:
Geopolitics
Politics
Economy & Business
2021-2025 Leaderboard
Turkey
World War II
Russo-Ukrainian War
Ministry of Foreign Affairs (Ukraine)
Global South
World Bank
Ukraine
North Africa
Russia

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