US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?

conditional

condition

Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040?

49 forecasters

if yes

if no

US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?

35%

US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?

20%

2 comments2

Make a Prediction

Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040?	US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 35%

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Export of cryptography from the United States

US restricts compute before 2026? → Date AIs Capable of Developing AI Software

Will the United States place restrictions on compute capacity before 2050?

41.9%

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Export of cryptography from the United States

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US restricts compute before 2026? → Date AIs Capable of Developing AI Software

Will the United States place restrictions on compute capacity before 2050?

41.9%

Will there be Human-machine intelligence parity before 2040?

95%