Forecast 2025 With Future Perfect

Every year, Vox's Future Perfect team predicts what will happen in the year ahead. Metaculus is collaborating with Future Perfect writers like Dylan Matthews and Marina Bolotnikova to host their forecast questions so you can predict 2025 alongside them. Participate before January 1st when they publish their forecasts Vox.com.

Predict here — $2,500 in prizes

M

conditional
condition

Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040?

49 forecasters
if yes
if no

US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?

35%
35%

US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?

20%
20%
11
2

Make a Prediction

Human/Machine Intelligence Parity by 2040?

US Compute Capacity Restrictions before 2050?

50%
community: 35%
Learn more about scores here.

Forecast Timeline

Authors:
PhilippSchoenegger
Opened:
Closes:
Scheduled resolution:
Computing and Math
Artificial Intelligence
Export of cryptography from the United States
Cryptography
AlphaGo
Machine learning
United States
DeepMind

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