🔭 The Bridgewater x Metaculus Forecasting Contest Goes Global — Feb 3

For the second year, Metaculus is teaming up with Bridgewater Associates to host a competition featuring $25k in prizes and potential opportunities with the asset management firm — and this year, forecasters from around the globe can compete.

Start here to register for the February 3rd competition, warm up on practice questions, and learn about the separate Open and Undergraduate leaderboards.

MetaculusM

conditional

Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024?

if yes

if no

Large-Scale Conflict Within Russia by 2030?

Resolved :Annulled24%

Large-Scale Conflict Within Russia by 2030?

13

Make a Prediction

Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024?	Large-Scale Conflict Within Russia by 2030?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 24%

The question "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?" resolves.

Forecast Timeline

if Yes

if No

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Russo-Ukrainian War

Russo-Japanese War

Russian Revolution

Russian Civil War

First Chechen War

Second Chechen War

Comments

? comments

Authors:

PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Closed:

Scheduled resolution:

2021-2025 Leaderboard

Russo-Ukrainian War

Russo-Japanese War

Russian Revolution

Russian Civil War

First Chechen War

Second Chechen War