Large-Scale Conflict Within Russia by 2030?

conditional

condition

Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024?

Resolved :No

43 forecasters

if yes

if no

Large-Scale Conflict Within Russia by 2030?

24%

Resolved :Annulled24%

Large-Scale Conflict Within Russia by 2030?

19%

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Bilateral Ceasefire in Ukraine before 2024?	Large-Scale Conflict Within Russia by 2030?
if yes	My Prediction: —
if no	My Prediction: —

50%

community: 24%

The question "Will there be a bilateral cease-fire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict before 2024?" has closed, so these conditionals are closed for forecasting. They will resolve when the question "Will there be a large-scale armed conflict in Russia before 2030?" resolves.