Question

How many airborne objects will be shot down in North American airspace in 2023?

Resolved :44.35

Total Forecasters26

Community Prediction4.35 (4.15 - 4.78)

Make a Prediction

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CDF

	lower 25%	median	upper 75%	>50
community	4.148	4.35	4.78	0.2%
My Prediction	—	—	—	—

Quartiles	community	My Prediction
lower 25%	4.148	—
median	4.35	—
upper 75%	4.78	—
Upper bound
>50	0.2%	—

What was the final result?4

Community Baseline Score

194.3

Community Peer Score

43.2

Authors:

RyanBeck satisficer

Opened:

Feb 19, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2023

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2024

Geopolitics

2023 Leaderboard

North American Aerospace Defense Command

United States

America's first completely unmanned fighter jets revealed in futuristic Air Force prototypes

Daily Mail•Mar 9, 2025

Air Force intercepts aircraft flying in a restricted zone near Mar-a-Lago

Associated Press•Mar 10, 2025

US Air Force F-16 fighters forced to intercept 2 aircraft that invaded Mar-a-Lago airspace

New York Post•Mar 10, 2025

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