Question

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

Resolved :No2%

2 comments2

Total Forecasters36

Community Prediction2% (0.1% - 28%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 2%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

7.0

Community Peer Score

33.4

Authors:

NMorrison Scoblic PhilippSchoenegger

Opened:

Feb 27, 2023

Closes:

Dec 31, 2024

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

Geopolitics

Nuclear Technology & Risks

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

Foreign policy of Vladimir Putin

New START

Russia

How Russia's Tactical Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Compares to US'

Newsweek•Jan 28, 2025

Russia May Expand Nuclear Arsenal to Counter US Efforts: Russian Diplomat

Newsweek•Jan 31, 2025

Russia May Lift Restrictions on Nuclear Weapons If US Goes Through With Trump Missile Defense Order

AntiWar•Jan 31, 2025

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