Question

Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?

Resolved :No12%

41 comments41

Total Forecasters63

Community Prediction12% (4% - 28%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

7.3

Community Peer Score

0.8

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Pshyeah

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Politics

2018-2019 Leaderboard

Ronald Reagan

Romania

China

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

North American Free Trade Agreement

United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement

United States

Poland

Donald Trump

2024 in review: Policy

Defense One•Dec 24, 2024

How Russia's Tactical Nuclear Weapon Stockpile Compares to US'

Newsweek•Dec 23, 2024

Philippines Says It Will Acquire Controversial US Missile System, China Warns of ‘Arms Race’

AntiWar•Dec 24, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

19%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

Comments

? comments