Question

Will the INF treaty functionally continue past 2025?

Resolved :No

41 comments41

Total Forecasters63

Community Prediction12%

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 12%

Did this actually happen?No

Community Baseline Score

7.3

Community Peer Score

0.8

median 12.0%mean 18.2%

Authors:

Pshyeah

Opened:

Closes:

Resolves:

Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty

North American Free Trade Agreement

United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement

Will the US claim that Russia has exceeded New START treaty limits on nuclear weapons before 2025?

30%

Will the New START nuclear arms control agreement be renewed until at least February 5, 2027?

43%

Conditional on New START not being renewed or replaced by another similar treaty after February 2026, will there be a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US by 2035?

3.9%

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