Question

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters144

Community Prediction83%

Make a Prediction

community: 83.4%

median 83.4%mean 74.8%

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Ethics

Artificial intelligence

Technology

Computer science

Cybersecurity standards

AI control problem

Cyber-security regulation

Risk management

Existential risk from AGI

Future of Life Institute

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

37%

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Ethics

Artificial intelligence

Technology

Computer science

Cybersecurity standards

AI control problem

Cyber-security regulation

Risk management

Existential risk from AGI

Future of Life Institute

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

37%

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

MetaculusM

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Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

Make a Prediction

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Comments

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?