Question

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

17 comments17

Total Forecasters145

Community Prediction84% (65% - 90%)

Make a Prediction

50%

community: 84%

Learn more about scores here.

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Ethics

Risk management

Existential risk from AGI

Cybersecurity standards

Future of Life Institute

AI control problem

Cyber-security regulation

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever believes superintelligent AI will be ‘unpredictable’

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

How Human Hubris Beats Artificial Intelligence

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tamay

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Computing and Math

Artificial Intelligence

Ethics

Risk management

Existential risk from AGI

Cybersecurity standards

Future of Life Institute

AI control problem

Cyber-security regulation

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever believes superintelligent AI will be ‘unpredictable’

TechCrunch•Dec 14, 2024

How Human Hubris Beats Artificial Intelligence

Psychology Today•Dec 20, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

36.9%

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

25%

Take Our 🏆Quarterly Cup🏆 Survey

MetaculusM

Will Metaculus predict that artificial intelligence continues to pose a global catastrophic risk by 2040?

Make a Prediction

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Comments

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?

Will we reach 2050 without the development of artificial general intelligence and without a major global conflict occurring?

Ragnarök Question Series: If a global catastrophe occurs, will it be due to an artificial intelligence failure-mode?

Before 2032, will we see an event precipitated by AI malfunction that causes at least 1000 deaths and/or at least $200B 2021 USD in economic damage?