Group

What will be the total quantity of space debris orbiting earth in each year?

Make a Prediction

	25th	median	75th
2025	39k ...	42.3k ...	47.3k ...
2030	41.8k ...	53.7k ...	70.4k ...
2035	49k ...	70.2k ...	105k ...

My Prediction

community

<10k

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

>100k

...

0.1%

39k

42.29k

47.34k

0.4%

Forecast Timeline

2035

2030

2025

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Environmental science

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k

Forecasting the Evolution of the Space Debris Population

Space Debris and the Kessler Syndrome

Comments

? comments

Authors:

RyanBeck

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

🛰 The Sagan Space Tournament 🛰

Environmental science

Elon Musk wants to send 30,000 more Starlink satellites into space - and it has astronomers worried

Independent•Oct 22, 2024

Intelsat 33e: Loss in Orbit Hits Satellite Service Across Half the World

Newsweek•Oct 22, 2024

4,300 tons of space junk and rising: another satellite breakup adds to orbital debris woes

Raw Story•Oct 22, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

What will be the estimated number of break-ups, explosions, collisions, or anomalous events resulting in fragmentation in space as of January 1, 2030?

1.06k