Question

What credence will the US government assign to existential risk from AI in the next 30 years before 2025?

Resolved :Ambiguous0.00655

10 comments10

Total Forecasters22

Community Prediction0.00655 (0.0017 - 0.0229)

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lower 25%

median

upper 75%

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1.0%

0.001702

0.006547

0.02287

What was the final result?Ambiguous

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Mar 15, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Mar 15, 2023

Closes:

Jan 1, 2025

Resolves:

Jan 1, 2025

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

What Is DeepSeek, the New Chinese OpenAI Rival?

Time•Jan 28, 2025

China's DeepSeek Bombshell Rocks Trump's $500B AI Boondoggle

Lew Rockwell•Jan 28, 2025

The ‘Doomsday Clock’ Ticks Closer To Global Catastrophe—And AI Is Now A Primary Concern

Forbes•Jan 29, 2025

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?

62%

Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

83%