Question

What credence will the US government assign to existential risk from AI in the next 30 years before 2025?

9 comments9

Total Forecasters19

Community Prediction0.00899 (0.00152 - 0.0372)

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My Prediction

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<1×10⁻⁵

lower 25%

median

upper 75%

...

1.3%

0.001519

0.008989

0.03717

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Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

Which AI Companies Are the Safest—and Least Safe?

Time•Dec 13, 2024

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?

62%

Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

83%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Matthew_Barnett

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

2021-2025 Leaderboard

United States

Which AI Companies Are the Safest—and Least Safe?

Time•Dec 13, 2024

AI 'godfather' Geoffrey Hinton says AI will one day unite nations against a common existential threat

Business Insider•Dec 13, 2024

Human Misuse Will Make Artificial Intelligence More Dangerous

Wired•Dec 14, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?

62%

Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

83%

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What credence will the US government assign to existential risk from AI in the next 30 years before 2025?

Make a Prediction

Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?

Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

Comments

Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?

Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?

Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?

Will global-catastrophic-risk-focused evaluation of certain AI systems by accredited bodies become mandatory in the US before 2035?

Will a U.S. President’s State of the Union address mention the issue of AI existential risk before the listed year?

Will the U.S. have passed legislation that requires cybersecurity around AI models before 2030?