Group

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?

Forecast Timeline

March 15, 2024

March 15, 2026

March 15, 2025

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
March 15, 2024	no

March 15, 2026	0.5%

March 15, 2025	0.1%

Community Baseline Score

98.7

Community Peer Score

1.1

Authors:

Tegwick

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tegwick

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Putin Allies Suggest Sinking UK with Nuclear Weapons

Newsweek•Oct 9, 2024

US Thought Risk of Russia Using a Nuclear Weapon Was at 50% in 2022, New Woodward Book Says

AntiWar•Oct 10, 2024

NATO will start an annual nuclear exercise as Russia threatens Ukraine’s Western backers

Associated Press•Oct 10, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%