Group

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?

54 forecasters

Forecast Timeline

March 15, 2024

March 15, 2026

March 15, 2025

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
March 15, 2024	no

March 15, 2026	0.5%

March 15, 2025	0.1%

Resolved Mar 15, 2024

Community Baseline Score

98.7

Community Peer Score

1.1

Authors:

Tegwick

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.3%

Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tegwick

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

Confrontation With Iran

•Nov 9, 2024

NATO State Leader Was 'Preparing' for Putin to Order Nuclear Strike: Book

Newsweek•Nov 12, 2024

World leaders held crisis meetings to prepare for Russian nuclear attack: book

New York Post•Nov 13, 2024

Learn more about Metaculus NewsMatch

Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%

Will Russia detonate a nuclear weapon in Ukraine or Ukrainian-held territory before 2026?

0.3%