Group

Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in or above a European Union state before the following dates?

Forecast Timeline

March 15, 2024

March 15, 2026

March 15, 2025

Make a Prediction

Candidates		My Prediction		Me
March 15, 2026	0.5%

March 15, 2024	no

March 15, 2025	0.1%

Authors:

Tegwick

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

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If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

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Comments

? comments

Authors:

Tegwick

Opened:

Closes:

Scheduled resolution:

Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

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Most likely way(s) a nuclear war involving hundreds of detonations could end up occurring by 2050?

If a NATO state other than the US offensively detonates a nuclear weapon before 2030, will an offensive detonation by the US also occur as part of the same conflict?

62%